The crises in Yemen is the latest in the middle east where a cocktail of impoverish population, sectarian divide and regional power has resulted in a massive humanitarian crises. However in Yemen it is the first instance where the GCC (Gulf cooperation council) countries are taking a leading role in countering the reels. It can change the dynamics of the region completely with GCC emerging as the major source in the region.
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| Yemen's position in the world map Img source - Open link |
The Root Cause
Mr. Ali Abdullah Saleh
Img source - Open link
The broader roots in the crises belong to 1990s unification of the US led and Saudi backed Yemeni Arab Republic and USSR backed Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen in the south. The military officers, like Ali Abdullah Saleh who ruled the North Yemen since 1978 assumed the leadership of the new country but the unification disturbed the sectarian barren of the country as a leadership of North Yemen continued to hold grip on the nation due to large number of Sunni population in the united Yemen. As the result, the central government never went beyond the capital Sana'a and the government secured it's power through patronage and by playing various factions of one another.
Numerous factions like al-Hirak, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and various other insulted groups have captured some path of the territory in south. However the Houthi movement whose base is among Zyadi Shias of the northern Yemen became the main voice of the southern Yemeni people since 2004.
In 2011 the tides of the Arab Spring sparked demands for the change in administration. The US and GCC had a political deal in Yemen by facilitating Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi as the new interim president.
As a part of the peace pact 2013 the UN sponsored the National dialogue conference (NDC) where 565 delegated were invited to form the new constitution, which was agreeable to all the factions present in Yemen. But the NDC ended after delegates could not resolve disputes over the distribution of power.
Houthi rebels accused the current administration for deliberately delaying the power distribution talks to retain it's hold in the government.
Mr. Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi
Img source - open link
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| Mr. Ali Abdullah Saleh Img source - Open link |
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| Mr. Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi Img source - open link |
Current Crises
The current phase of the crises erupted after the Houthi rebels overthrew the interim government and forced it's president to seek exile in Saudi Arabia. The chain of the current events started in July 2014 when the Hadi's government lifted fuel subsidies to balance the country's economic conditions. The Houthi movement rebelled against the decision and organised mass protest demanding lower fuel prices and the new pro people government amid opposition and clashes, the Hadi's government and the Sunni Islamist party along with Houthis captured the capital Sana'a by mid September 2014.
At this stage, UN intervened but failed to bring any concrete result. The Houthi rebels in January 2015 owing to the discord b/w the Houthis and the government placed in Mr. Hadi and several members of the government under house arrest.
In February 2015, the Houthis issued their own constitutional declaration and established governing bodies. They dissolved the parliament and installed an interim revolutionary committee led by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi as the new president. As a result, president Hadi refused to continue under Houthi dominance and fled to Saudi Arabia.
Former president Ali Abdullah Saleh who still commands the loyalty of some elements of the Yemeni securing forces has also formed a tactical alliance with the Houthi rebels providing them with their politically experienced but militarily week structure remains fragile but it still has a common cause to keep the Hadi government out of office/power.
Significance of conflict
The Houthi's shared geopolitical interest with Iran which seeks to challenge Saudi and US dominance in the region. A Shia dominated ally in the southern part of Saudi Arabia completely fits well in the encirclement policy of Saudi Arabia.
Img source - Open link
However the Houthi's are a home grown outfit and unlike Hezbollah and Hamas have never pledged their open alliance with Iran. The collision of Sunni majority, Arab states like Bahrain , Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar and UAE have assumed the de-facto leadership which as a split over the regional issues and signals consensus against allowing Iran to gain influence in Yemen.
Yemen's strategic position at the mount of the Red sea and african continent also makes it very important. Control of Yemen is necessary for the free passage of 4.7 mn barrels of oil per day through the choke point of Bab-el-Mandeb.
Despite it's claims by Saudi Arabia, it seems incapable of solving the problem of it's own after a series of air strikes on Yemen. It was believed that just in one month's bombarding by Saudi Arabia they will be able to destroy the Houthi rebels. However it never happened in reality and has raised question marks over the ability of Saudi Arabia's air campaign.
In May 2015, the Saudi Arabia and it's coalition partners launched political and peace efforts which they call "operation resorting hope", which stays continued till now but at the same time they continued their attacks against the Houthi targets. The denial of legitimacy from UN has virtually cutt them of from the rest of the world and a successful naval blockade by warships has denied any supply from Iran as a result, Yemen faces a financial collapse and a conflict has been escalated to humanitarian crises.
On 2nd August 2016, talks between UN and Houthi rebels has failed once again regarding the sharing of power. However in November 2016 US defence secretary John Kerry had a meeting with the concerned parties in the conflict and have persuaded them for a mutual ceasefire for the resolving of current crises in Yemen. How long and to what extent this ceasefire will be helpful in resolving the issue is a matter of fact and the intention of power player like Saudi Arabia and US is a matter of fact which will be unfolded in near future.
Significance of conflict
The Houthi's shared geopolitical interest with Iran which seeks to challenge Saudi and US dominance in the region. A Shia dominated ally in the southern part of Saudi Arabia completely fits well in the encirclement policy of Saudi Arabia.
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| Img source - Open link |
However the Houthi's are a home grown outfit and unlike Hezbollah and Hamas have never pledged their open alliance with Iran. The collision of Sunni majority, Arab states like Bahrain , Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar and UAE have assumed the de-facto leadership which as a split over the regional issues and signals consensus against allowing Iran to gain influence in Yemen.
Yemen's strategic position at the mount of the Red sea and african continent also makes it very important. Control of Yemen is necessary for the free passage of 4.7 mn barrels of oil per day through the choke point of Bab-el-Mandeb.
Despite it's claims by Saudi Arabia, it seems incapable of solving the problem of it's own after a series of air strikes on Yemen. It was believed that just in one month's bombarding by Saudi Arabia they will be able to destroy the Houthi rebels. However it never happened in reality and has raised question marks over the ability of Saudi Arabia's air campaign.
In May 2015, the Saudi Arabia and it's coalition partners launched political and peace efforts which they call "operation resorting hope", which stays continued till now but at the same time they continued their attacks against the Houthi targets. The denial of legitimacy from UN has virtually cutt them of from the rest of the world and a successful naval blockade by warships has denied any supply from Iran as a result, Yemen faces a financial collapse and a conflict has been escalated to humanitarian crises.
On 2nd August 2016, talks between UN and Houthi rebels has failed once again regarding the sharing of power. However in November 2016 US defence secretary John Kerry had a meeting with the concerned parties in the conflict and have persuaded them for a mutual ceasefire for the resolving of current crises in Yemen. How long and to what extent this ceasefire will be helpful in resolving the issue is a matter of fact and the intention of power player like Saudi Arabia and US is a matter of fact which will be unfolded in near future.
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| Situation in Middle East Img source - Open Link |
To understand the situation better, please read my article The Syrian civil war also.
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